As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Friday evening at 6:45 PM ET, baseball enthusiasts are primed for an intriguing matchup. Both teams are striving to improve their standings within their respective divisions.
The Reds currently hold a season record of 47-50, positioning them in 4th place in the NL Central and eight games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. On the other hand, the Nationals have a 44-53 record, also sitting in 4th place, but in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by a significant 18.5 games.
Reds Favored Despite Recent Struggles
With the Reds favored in this matchup, they face an uphill battle despite the odds. Interestingly, the Nationals, marked as underdogs with a +105 line, surprisingly hold a 62% projected chance of victory. This unpredictability sets the stage for an engaging clash.
Starting for the Reds is Frankie Montas, who will bring his 4-7 record and 4.38 ERA over 17 starts this season to the mound. His recent performance saw him surrender five earned runs in seven innings against the Rockies, an outing he surely looks to improve upon.
Nationals' Patrick Corbin Looks for Consistency
Opposing Montas is Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. Corbin’s season has been a mixed bag, reflected in his 4-9 record and a 5.57 ERA across 19 starts. Notably, Corbin has allowed at least one home run in each of his last four outings. However, he showcased his potential with a sterling performance on June 24th, pitching seven scoreless innings. Corbin is projected to notch five strikeouts in the game.
Recent Performances and Key Players
The Reds enter the game on the back of a narrow 3-2 loss against the Marlins, in which Nick Lodolo allowed two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings, while Elly De La Cruz launched a home run in the first inning. The team holds a 4-1 record over their previous five away games and a 5-5 record when playing as favorites.
The Nationals, conversely, are coming off a 9-3 defeat to the Brewers, where Jake Irvin gave up six earned runs in four innings. Their recent home record stands at 2-3 over the last five games, as they have struggled with a 3-7 record over the last 10 games. However, they did manage to win two of three games in their most recent series against the Brewers, providing a morale boost.
Offensive Performance
Offensively, the Reds average 4.5 runs per game, ranking 14th in the league. Their batting average of .231 places them 17th in on-base percentage and 25th in strikeouts. Spencer Steer has been a standout performer, driving in 60 runs and hitting 15 homers, placing him 10th best in RBIs in the MLB.
For the Nationals, they average 4.1 runs per game, slumping to 23rd in the league, though they slightly improve to 4.2 runs per game at home. With a batting average of .239, they rank 13th in on-base percentage. CJ Abrams leads the Nationals with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs, but he has struggled recently, going just 3/21 in his last five games.
Odds and Projections
With the over/under set at nine runs, the Reds' record with similar conditions stands at 2-16-3, compared to the Nationals’ 7-7-2. This could indicate a potential for lower-scoring affairs historically for the Reds under similar setups. Joey Gallo, Luke Maile, and Matt McLain will be notable absentees for the Reds, while the Nationals will miss key players such as Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and CJ Abrams.
The Reds have shown a strong performance on the run line, boasting a 53-44 record and an impressive 30-14 performance on the road. The Nationals, meanwhile, have held their own as underdogs, with a 46-34 record against the run line.
As the teams gear up for what promises to be an engaging encounter, fans will be watching closely to see if the Reds can capitalize on their favored status or if the Nationals can defy the odds and secure a crucial home victory.