The Kansas City Royals are in the midst of a tumultuous end to a season that once promised a playoff berth. After a decisive victory over the Cleveland Guardians on August 27, the Royals surged into a first-place tie in their division, boasting a 6 1/2 game cushion in a playoff spot with just over a month left to play. However, their fortunes have since dramatically reversed.
Since that promising day, the Royals have been beleaguered by inconsistency. They have endured two separate seven-game losing streaks, resulting in a 7-16 record over their last 23 games. This drastic decline has left them tied with the Detroit Tigers for the second and third wild-card spots, with the Minnesota Twins breathing down their necks, just a game behind. The final stretch will see the Royals face the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves on the road, a journey complicated by their 37-38 road record this year.
With such an erratic performance, the Royals' playoff chances now sit at 60.5%, as estimated by SportsLine. The slide is glaringly reflected in their batting numbers. Post-August 27, the team is hitting an anemic .206/.273/.317, managing a meager average of 3.04 runs per game. This is a stark contrast to their earlier season form, where they hit .258/.314/.425, averaging 4.88 runs per game. The offensive slump has been exacerbated by injuries, notably to Vinnie Pasquantino, and a lack of performances, with only Bobby Witt Jr. maintaining an above-average weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).
Bobby Witt Jr., once a beacon of hope, has seen a dip in form. From June 30 to August 27, Witt Jr. posted an impressive .416/.467/.774 slash line with 17 doubles, three triples, 15 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 50 runs in 48 games. His recent 23-game stats read .261/.340/.500, a commendable line but a far cry from his earlier dominance. Other players like Yuli Gurriel have barely been a presence, contributing only 13 games this season.
The pitching situation is no better. Lucas Erceg, who had a phenomenal start with a 0.00 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts against one walk in his first 11 outings, has also faltered. Since August 27, Erceg has managed a 7.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, blowing two saves and earning three losses. The bullpen's collective effort is summed up by a 4.33 ERA, seven bullpen losses, and four blown saves in this stretch.
The Royals' remaining fixtures are crucial. They will end the season on a six-game road trip, with games against the Nationals and Braves. While the Twins and Tigers will wrap up their seasons with six home games each, the Royals need to defy their less-than-stellar road record if they are to clinch their first postseason appearance since their World Series triumph in 2015.
The schedule has not been kind to the Royals. In their last 23 games, they faced teams with winning records in 17 contests, including being swept by the 77-79 San Francisco Giants. Yet, to dismiss their struggles by citing a tough schedule or defeats by playoff contenders would be too simplistic. As noted, "We had a tough schedule" and "we lost to a playoff contender" aren't valid excuses.
For a team that started with such promise, the Royals are now on the precipice. Their recent performances have been far from playoff-caliber, making this an uphill battle. Their destiny lies not just in their upcoming opponents, but in their ability to recapture the form that saw them surge into first place in late August. The stakes are high, and the resolve of this team is about to be tested in these final, crucial games.