In a devastating turn of events at Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins squandered a three-run lead, falling 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The defeat came on the back of a game-winning two-run homer by Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning, dealt by a beleaguered Griffin Jax.
Recent performances have painted a bleak picture for the Twins. Over their last 27 games, they have emerged victorious only nine times, leaving them clinging precariously to the third AL wild-card spot. The team's lead has now diminished to a mere 1 1/2 games, a worrying sign for a squad that, as of September 5, had postseason odds pegged at 95.4% by FanGraphs—odds which now have dwindled to 76.4%.
Twins' manager Rocco Baldelli voiced the collective frustration, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." A dismal offensive stretch has seen the Twins score no more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 games, with the team batting an uninspiring .236, paired with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage.
The offensive woes are compounded by situational struggles. When the bases are empty, the Twins are hitting just .272, making them one of the bottom four teams in the league in such scenarios. Yet, hope glimmers with the expected return of Max Kepler, who may provide the offensive spark needed.
Meanwhile, the bullpen that once carried a respectable 3.84 ERA over the first 123 games is now a shadow of its former self. The ERA has ballooned to 5.47 over the last 27 games, with a league-worst win probability added of minus-2.75. Griffin Jax's recent heartbreak mirrored the wider bullpen crisis, as he admitted, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
Pablo López highlighted the urgency of the situation, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
The starting rotation hasn’t fared any better. With a collective ERA of 6.07 and averaging only 4.38 innings per start during this troubling span, the cracks are showing. Derek Falvey, the Twins' Chief Baseball Officer, commented on the recent acquisition of lefty Cole Irvin from the Baltimore Orioles, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Cole Irvin sports a 4.86 ERA from his tenure with the Orioles, encompassing 16 starts and nine relief appearances. The hope is that his addition will bolster a flagging rotation and bullpen.
Despite the team’s struggles, there are glimmers of hope. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have been productive this month, combining for 5 hits in 15 at-bats with two doubles and a homer. However, individual performances have not yet coalesced into team successes.
Adding to their woes, the Twins have played a grueling 17 games over the last 18 days, a schedule that has no doubt taken its toll. Still, they hold crucial tiebreakers over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, their closest competitors who trail by two games. The Tigers, now on a strong 23-10 run in their last 33 games, and the Mariners, pose threats that could unravel the Twins' wild-card aspirations.
Rocco Baldelli underscored the need for unity and resilience, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this." The team’s challenge is not just physical but mental, as they navigate a fine line between contention and collapse.
As the regular season winds down, the Twins’ path to the postseason remains fraught with challenges. The coming days will determine whether this team can rally and secure their place in the playoffs, or if their efforts will fall just short.