The NBA's Rookie of the Year award is among the most prestigious honors a young player can receive. Historically, it has often rewarded the most productive rookie scorer of each season. Indeed, over the last decade, half of the recipients have led all rookies in scoring.
Examining the broader context, 50% of the past 16 winners were No. 1 overall draft picks. Such a trend underscores the common expectation that the top pick in the draft will make an immediate and significant impact. However, this pattern doesn’t entirely exclude lower picks from contention. Notable exceptions include Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, both of whom clinched the Rookie of the Year award despite being selected outside the top five picks. Their success stories remain rare, though, with only a handful of winners coming from beyond those elite spots in recent times.
Despite this trend towards guards and wings, big men have still found ways to make their mark. Since 2003, however, only four big men have won the award: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and more recently, Victor Wembanyama. Their success signals that dominant big men, while less common, can still achieve remarkable rookie seasons when given the opportunity.
This year, the 2024 draft class has been described as among the least promising in NBA history. The top two picks are seen as projects and notably do not play the guard position. This leaves the door open for other draftees to shine. Among the guards, Reed Sheppard stands out as the highest-picked in this year's class. However, his path to stardom isn't straightforward. Currently, Sheppard faces stiff competition within Houston’s backcourt. As one insider noted, "They badly need his shooting," highlighting both the team's needs and the rookie's potential role.
Meanwhile, other rookies have their own struggles and competition. Stephon Castle, despite his potential, shot only 26.7% on three-pointers at UConn, raising questions about his readiness for the NBA's perimeter-oriented play. Ron Holland also struggled from deep in the G-League, hitting just 23.9% of his three-point attempts. These shooting woes could hinder their immediate impact.
A major storyline involves Zach Edey, drafted to play for the Grizzlies. Edey appears relatively certain to start, leveraging his size and skill set. He is expected to model his game after Jonas Valanciunas, providing a solid foundation for his rookie season. Other rookies like Rob Dillingham, drafted by the Timberwolves as a future replacement for veteran Mike Conley, will have time to grow into their roles.
Not all rookies are as fortunate, though. Portland's Donovan Clingan finds himself deep in the rotation behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III. Meanwhile, on Trae Young’s team, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are competing with rookie Zaccharie Risacher for forward minutes. In Utah, Isaiah Collier faces roadblocks in the established guard duo of Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. At the Lakers, Dalton Knecht’s opportunities are limited by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Last season, rookies like Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. did garner votes outside the lottery but did not mount serious challenges for the top honor. This year’s class might face similar scrutiny unless one of them can break the mold.
The competitive landscape offers numerous narratives heading into the season. Whether it’s the battle for playing time or the quest to overcome shooting inefficiencies, this year's rookies have a lot to prove. Their journey will be closely watched by fans and pundits alike, determining who among them can rise to capture the coveted Rookie of the Year award despite the odds.